NFL Pick: New England Patriots Visit Mile High-Spirited Denver Broncos

Sunday, December 18, 2011

by Aengus Moorehead

Tom Brady - NFL Pick: New England Patriots Visit Mile High-Spirited Denver Broncos

Analysis:
It is hard to imagine Tom Brady entering a contest playing second fiddle to an ordinary figure who has yet to convince the majority of pundits. But that's the case this week, and it’s because Tim Tebow is converting non-believers one fourth-quarter comeback at a time. Tebow faces his biggest test of the season, however, as Brady and the AFC East-leading New England Patriots travel to Denver in hopes of ending the Broncos’ six-game winning streak.

A polarizing figure, Tebow has hushed -for now- the critics and resurrected the AFC West-leading Broncos’ season by winning seven of his eight starts. The Patriots, meanwhile, have won five straight and are one of four teams in the conference vying for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They can clinch their eighth AFC East title in nine years with a win or a New York Jets' loss to Philadelphia. New England, however, is just 2-15 in Denver since 1969.

Suffice to say, if Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos are able to defeat the visiting New England Patriots Sunday at Sports Authority Field at Mile High, what's already been a snowstorm of media coverage surrounding the second-year quarterback will ramp up to a full-fledged blizzard.

A win against the Patriots would edge Denver ever closer to an unlikely title in the AFC West, which it leads by a game over Oakland and two over San Diego -- both of whom it split a season series with.

Meanwhile, the Patriots hold a two-game bulge over the second-place New York Jets in the AFC East and can clinch the division for the ninth time in 11 years with a victory, having swept two 2011 games with the Jets by a combined 67-37.

A 34-27 triumph last week at Washington gave New England 10 wins for the ninth consecutive season, joining the San Francisco 49ers (1983-1998, 16 seasons) and Indianapolis Colts (2002-2010, nine seasons) as the only franchises to produce that level of consistency.

But even in their best seasons, the Patriots have struggled to match the frenzy prompted by Tebow, a controversial 2010 first-round draft choice championed by since-fired head coach Josh McDaniels but widely dismissed as a non-traditional novelty before the recent streak.

Denver has won his seven starts this season by a combined 37 points, while its one loss since he took over -- at home to Detroit on Oct. 30 -- was by 35 points (45-10).

Chicago had a 10-0 lead on the Broncos when it punted with less than five minutes remaining last week. But Tebow hit Demaryius Thomas for a touchdown with 2:08 left and Denver later tied the game on a 59-yard field goal by Matt Prater to force overtime.

Prater returned in the extra session to hit a decisive 51-yarder. It was the fourth straight game in which the Broncos won after trailing in the final two minutes.

New England quarterback Tom Brady, meanwhile, is just 1-6 against the Broncos for his career and the Patriots are 2-15 at Denver since 1969.

This season, Brady and Co. have scored at least 30 points in nine of 12 games, taking the heat off a makeshift defense that's seen wide receivers Julian Edelman and Matthew Slater playing safety and has allowed more than 430 yards for three straight weeks.

Denver owns a 25-16 lead in its all-time regular season series with New England and has won five of the last seven matchups in the set, the most recent a 20-17 overtime victory at Sports Authority Field in 2009. Including playoffs, the loss was the Patriots' third straight and 15th in its last 17 outings in Denver, with the team's last road ousting of the Broncos a 30-26 decision in 2003, New England did rout Denver by a 41-7 score in a 2008 meeting at Gillette Stadium.

The Broncos have won both of their two previous postseason clashes with the Patriots as well, scoring a 27-13 verdict in Denver in a 2005 AFC Divisional Playoff and a 22-17 triumph in a 1986 Divisional Round encounter at Mile High Stadium.

Bill Belichick is just 3-10 in his head coaching career against Denver, which includes an 0-4 mark while at the helm of the Cleveland Browns from 1991-95. John Fox is 1-2 against both the Patriots and Belichick, with all three of those games coming during his tenure with the Carolina Panthers from 2002-10. One of the defeats was a 32-29 setback to Belichick's New England squad by the Panthers in Super Bowl XXXVIII, held at Houston's Reliant Stadium to conclude the 2003 season.

Time & Venue:
- 4:15 PM ET, Sunday, December 18, 2011. Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado

Last Week's results:
- New England Patriots (-9) beats host Washington Redskins 34-27.
- Denver Broncos (-3.5) beats visiting Chicago Bears 13-10.

Last week's ATS:
- Favourite New England Patriots (10-3) wins but does not cover.
- Favourite Denver Broncos (8-5) wins but does not cover.

NFL Football Odds: Patriots -7.5, O/U 48

Next up:
- New England home to Miami Dolphins, Saturday, December 24
- Denver at Buffalo Bills, Saturday, December 24

Brady threw for 357 yards and three touchdowns in a closer-than-expected 34-27 win over Washington last week, but his sideline spat with offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien was the story. The two had a heated exchange after Brady threw a rare red-zone interception – his first in more than a month – late in the fourth quarter. Before the dust-up, Brady threw two touchdowns to Rob Gronkowski, who had six catches for a career-high 160 yards and set a single-season record for touchdowns by a tight end (15) in the process. Gronkowski has 10 scores in his last six games. The Patriots’ league-worst defense (416.0 ypg) gave up 170 yards on the ground to Washington, which is a concern as it prepares to face the NFL's top-ranked rushing attack (156.2 ypg).


The Broncos were on the verge of being shut out at home for the first time in the franchise’s 52-year history last Sunday before they rallied for an improbable 13-10 overtime victory over Chicago. Tebow started 3 of 16 for 45 yards, but went 18 of 24 for 191 yards and a touchdown in the fourth quarter and OT as Denver erased a 10-point deficit in the final 4:34 of regulation.

Matt Prater sent the game to overtime with a 59-yard field goal and won it with a 51-yarder – his third straight game-winning kick – after Marion Barber fumbled in overtime. It was Tebow’s sixth fourth-quarter comeback in 11 starts – the most since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. Tebow isn’t the only reason for the turnaround. Veteran RB Willis McGahee has an NFL-best six 100-yard games and is nearing his first 1,000-yard season since 2007. The defense, led by outstanding rookie LB Von Miller (11.5 sacks), is allowing an average of 15.6 points over the last five contests.

For all the talk of Denver's defensive superiority, the Broncos actually give up more points (23.2 to 21.1) and rushing yards (124.2 to 107.3) per game than New England. And the Patriots' biggest statistical weakness -- defending the pass -- hardly plays to the strength of a team that's 31st in the league throwing the ball.

With Tebow's arm still viewed as a liability, the tempo of the game rests on the legs of McGahee, who's rejuvenated his career with his best rushing total since 2007. The more yards he churns out against New England's front seven, the less time Brady and the Patriots' offense will spend on the field and better the chance of the Broncos winning.

Only three of 12 foes have held the Patriots below 30 points in 2011, and none have done so since the first week of November. For the Broncos to accomplish the feat will likely mean prompting a mistake or two from Brady, who's shown signs of being human in throwing 11 interceptions in 13 games.

NBC tried to "flex" this game into its prime-time slot since the matchup wasn't protected at the start of the season by CBS, but Commissioner Roger Goodell stepped in.

"If you make bad plays, you are supposed to get yelled at by your coaches." – Brady, on the confrontation with O'Brien.

Tebow's completion percentage is an abysmal 39.4 percent in the first half this season, but it jumps to 61.3 in the fourth quarter

Denver is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against New England
Denver is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Denver is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games
New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Denver
New England is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
New England is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games when playing Denver

The Patriots have a string of wins over good teams like the Jets and Cowboys, as well as others against preseason favorites such as San Diego and Philadelphia. Meanwhile, the Broncos edged a pair of common foes the past two weeks and took a 35-point home pasting against a potential postseason squad in Detroit prior to their current run. Considering this is still Brady against Tebow, it's likely to look a lot more like this game will be no contest. In fact, the true Tebow miracle this week will be keeping Denver within two scores.

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NFL Football Pick: Take Patriots.

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afc east - afc west - bill belichick - buffalo bills - demaryius thomas - denver broncos - indianapolis colts - john fox - josh mcdaniels - julian edelman

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